Renowned macro investor and former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal is predicting a major Bitcoin rally over the next 12 months. His reasoning? A weakening U.S. dollar and rising global liquidity.
Pal, who now serves as CEO of Real Vision said that policymakers around the world are likely to weaken the dollar intentionally to make it easier for countries to service their debt. According to him, this move will unlock a surge in money supply, which has historically fueled rallies in risk assets like Bitcoin and crypto.
“Everyone needs and wants a weaker dollar to service their dollar debts,” Pal wrote. “No one wants it to move too fast… but they need it lower over the next 12 months.”
He pointed to a strong link between global liquidity and Bitcoin’s price, citing an 87% correlation. Pal also referred back to 2020, when a recession and a wave of stimulus led to a historic crypto bull run. “See 2020 for details. Recession and rising liquidity = stronger BTC,” he noted.
Pal shared a chart showing Bitcoin’s tendency to follow global liquidity trends — with about a 12-week lag. His takeaway? That this one factor might be more important than any other narrative.
“Maybe, just maybe, it was this easy all along,” he said. “IF this works, it will definitively prove that liquidity is THE dominant factor still in markets. Not tariffs. Not politics. Not rates. Not (insert your narrative).”
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $93,570 — near its highest level in weeks — while the U.S. national debt hovered at a staggering $36.2 trillion.
Raoul Pal has made several notable predictions regarding the S&P 500 over the years. In December 2021, he accurately anticipated that the S&P 500 would stall in 2022 following an early-year high.