By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Cryptocurrencies fell slightly in the past 24 hours, with the broad market CoinDesk 20 ( CD20 ) index dropping 1.4%. Bitcoin ( BTC ) is little changed around $95,000. These figures are well within recent volatility ranges and come on the back of a strong monthly performance — BTC is on track to rise 15% in April, the most since November.
The market has been grappling with growing pessimism surrounding the potential impact of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs on nearly every country and optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates earlier than expected.
Stock prices have rallied over the past week on expectations that Trump would lower the tariffs and the continuation of interest-rate cuts, according to Spanish bank Bankinter.
“Yet the perspective could turn for the worse from today, applying the logic of the data, because — regardless of tariffs and rate cuts — part of the damage has already been done, chiefly to confidence, which is the market’s foundation,” the bank wrote in a note.
Indeed, various major companies, including P&G, UPS, PepsiCo, American Airlines and GM, have lowered or pulled their earnings forecasts. Bankinter pointed out that French first-quarter GDP data released today showed a quarter-on-quarter increase that was entirely inventory-driven, while consumption, investment, and exports are weakening.
That bodes poorly for the U.S. figure, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. Some market observers, including Bankinter, suggest it could contract sharply. Bitcoin’s rise so far this year, contrasting with the stock market’s worst 100 days of a presidential administration since 1974, could be further evidence the cryptocurrency is starting to be used as a hedge.
As mentioned earlier in the week , Greg Cipolaro, the global head of research at NYDIG, wrote in a note that BTC has been acting “more like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is.”
Bitcoin has decoupled from U.S. equities after the trade war between the U.S. and China escalated and has been seeing bets on it rise. This month, spot bitcoin ETFs posted monthly total net inflows of little over $3 billion according to SoSoValue data, further pointing to a flight to the cryptocurrency space amid the uncertainty. Stay alert!
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